Sri Lanka Must Catch the Rain Before the Drought
Sri Lanka could face two connected climate challenges, with heavier rainfall, localised flooding and landslide risks in the latter part of 2026 potentially followed by a prolonged dry spell extending well into 2027. Current forecasts point to possible pressure on reservoirs, irrigation, groundwater, agriculture, hydropower and household water supplies as the country prepares for the effects of El Niño.
The challenge is not simply how much rain falls, but how effectively the country captures, stores and manages water before the dry months arrive. Rain that flows into the sea or evaporates from poorly maintained tanks cannot support communities when water becomes scarce. Reservoirs are reported to be holding around 47% of typical storage levels, leaving little room for waste.
Water security affects every Sri Lankan. The rain that fills a village tank in the Dry Zone also supports hydropower, industry and household water supplies across the country. Preparing for El Niño is therefore a national concern, not only an agricultural one.
Sri Lanka already has experience in managing these challenges through the Climate Resilient Integrated Water Management Project (CRIWMP), financed by the Green Climate Fund and implemented by the Government of Sri Lanka with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The project ran from 2017 to 2025 across the Malwathu Oya, Mi Oya and Yan Oya river basins in the Dry Zone.
CRIWMP upgraded 325 village irrigation systems across 20 tank cascades, installed more than 4,000 household rainwater harvesting systems and provided tailored agro-meteorological advisories to 569,314 farmers. In total, it reached more than 805,000 people, including over 410,000 women.
The project demonstrated that water works best when managed as a connected system, linking rainfall, tanks, groundwater, irrigation and the communities that depend on them.
Palugaswewa shows what careful water management can achieve
The value of this approach is evident in the Palugaswewa Cascade, where five of the ten medium and large tanks are still holding more than half of their water capacity despite months of drought.
These tanks supported cultivation throughout both the 2026 Maha and Yala seasons, even though the area received no rain from May until September. One tank retained enough water to support cultivation during the intermediate season as well.
This outcome reflects careful water management across both cultivation seasons, guided by agro-meteorological advisories and weather forecasts and supported by on-farm and off-farm water management measures.
Community decisions have also demonstrated the value of climate information. Members of the Puwakpitiya Women’s Group, who usually grow onions requiring daily watering, decided to switch to brinjal after learning about the El Niño outlook and the possibility of extended dry conditions. Brinjal requires watering only about twice a week.
The group made the decision independently, drawing on knowledge of climate-smart agriculture and access to climate information. The experience illustrates how communities can adapt when they have the information and confidence to make their own decisions.
Resilience starts with people, communities and institutions. It also depends on strengthening the systems that support them.
What households and farmers can do now
As Sri Lanka prepares for the months ahead, several practical measures can help reduce the risks associated with both heavy rainfall and prolonged dry conditions.
Follow official guidance first
The Government of Sri Lanka leads forecasting, advisories, water allocation decisions and emergency response. People should closely follow updates from the Department of Meteorology, the Disaster Management Centre, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Irrigation and other relevant authorities.
Households in flood- and landslide-prone areas should review evacuation routes, keep essential documents and supplies ready, and act promptly when warnings are issued. Agro-meteorological advisories can also help farmers make informed decisions.
Store water while it is available
Rainfall presents an opportunity as well as a risk. Households can collect rainwater from rooftops using gutters and storage barrels, while maintaining tanks and containers to prevent losses. Rain expected between October and December could provide an opportunity to build household reserves before drier conditions develop.
Water collection and storage must follow appropriate safety guidelines to protect water quality. Communities and households trained through the project demonstrate how rainwater harvesting can be practised in their own backyards.
Protect water from loss
Repairing leaking taps and pipes, avoiding unnecessary use, covering storage containers and reducing evaporation can help stretch supplies through the dry months.
When water becomes scarce, communities are encouraged to prioritise drinking and domestic needs first, followed by livestock and then agriculture.
Farmers should plan with the forecast
Farmers should consult seasonal forecasts and agro-meteorological advisories before planting, adjusting crop choices and irrigation schedules where necessary. Water-saving practices, including alternate wetting and drying in paddy cultivation, and water-efficient crops such as green gram can help reduce demand without sacrificing yields.
Diversifying household income through home gardens, poultry and other livelihoods can also help families withstand a difficult agricultural season.
Keep drinking water safe
Floods can contaminate drinking-water sources, while drought can concentrate existing contaminants. Boiling or treating drinking water, protecting wells from flood runoff and keeping storage containers clean are important precautions during both periods.
Ensure vulnerable communities are not left behind
Climate shocks do not affect everyone equally. Women, smallholder farmers, rural households and vulnerable communities often face greater risks. Preparedness efforts must give particular attention to their needs.
Small actions by thousands of households can contribute to national resilience. Preparing before a crisis is generally more effective and less costly than responding after it occurs.
UNDP will continue to support the Government through technical expertise, knowledge sharing and lessons from successful climate investments, working alongside donors and local partners.
The coming rain could become either a threat or a reserve for the dry months ahead. Decisions by households, farmers, communities and institutions will influence the outcome. Informed anticipatory action offers an opportunity to reduce the potential effects of prolonged drought.
By preparing for these risks and making the most of every drop, Sri Lanka can work towards a more resilient and water-secure future.
About UNDP
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) works to address poverty, inequality and climate change. Through its network of experts and partners in 170 countries, it supports nations in developing integrated, lasting solutions for people and the planet.
Learn more at www.undp.org/srilanka or follow @UNDPSriLanka.
